WNBA Play-Offs Outlook

WNBA play-offs get started this Sunday. The pairings are: 

#1- Minnesota vs. #8 Golden State

#4- Phoenix vs #5 New York

#3- Atlanta vs #6 Indiana

#2- Las Vegas vs #7 Seattle

Play-Off Format

First Round- Best of 3- Best Seed Hosts #1, Lowest Seed Hosts #2, Best Seed Hosts #3. (This arrangement is new to make sure all play-off teams get at least one home game.)

Second Round- Best of 5- Best Seed Hosts #1, #2, then Lowests #3, #4, and Best gets #5.

Championship- Best of 7– Best #1, #2, Lowest #3, #4, Best #5, Lowest #6, Best #7. 

My Outlook

#1 Minnesota vs #8 Golden State- Golden State has had a great season as an expansion team but they have not matched up well vs Minnesota all year, losing all 4 games. Like many teams, GS has no one to guard Napheesa Collier. 

Prediction- Golden State could win game #2 at home if they figure a way to hold Minnesota under 70 points. But this is not going to happen. Minnesota wins 2-0.

#4 Phoenix vs #5 New York- New York has dealt with the absences of Jonquel Jones, then the injuries to Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. They are all back now but they have under performed. Phoenix is led by Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas. Phoenix has over performed this season. 

Prediction- If DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb can provide outside shooting, Phoenix becomes very tough to guard. Stewart and Ionescu are going to roll, this will be New York winning 2-1. 

#2 Las Vegas vs #7 Seattle- The question for everyone, who do you have that can guard A’Ja Wilson. On top of it, LV may have the best nucleus of four players with Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd. 

Prediction- These teams have split during the regular season. The only way Seattle gets a win here is if they have a good shooting game (which they usually don’t), and they keep Wilson from having a 30 points and 15 rebounds game. Las Vegas wins 2-0.

#3 Atlanta vs #6 Indiana- Atlanta has the deadly perimeter combination of Alisha Gray (18.4ppg) and Rhyne Howard (17.5ppg). Kelsey Mitchell has carried Indiana and was rewarded as first team All-WNBA. Atlanta may be the deepest team in the WNBA, and Indiana may have the worst depth in the WNBA. 

Prediction- These teams have not played each other since the first month of the season. For Indiana to get just one win, a lot has to go right for them. Aliyah Boston was able to dominate Bri Jones last year in the play-offs and in their games early this season. Rhyne Howard has the ability to go nuts and score 30-40 points. Indiana can win if: 1) Boston scores big and together Boston and Mitchell can outscore Gray and Howard, 2) Indiana dominates the boards, 3) Indiana reduces impact of a weak bench by playing starters significantly more minutes. If Indiana can do all three of these things, they can win a game. Indiana pulls upset in game 1 and comes back to Indiana to win game 2. Indiana 2-0. 

Other News in the W

Surprise, Angel Reese is in the news. Reese went on the record with the Chicago Tribune and did a public analysis of the Chicago Sky fanchise and the Sky players. 

What she said about the perks (facilities) available with Sky are so poor that they cannot attract free agents. The story is told that Candice Parker on going from Sky to Aces said,”It is great to have a locker where I can keep my things.”

As for players, she said they needed to get better players, in particular better guards. 

All that she said was probably true, but it is what she did not say and how she said it. Her message should have been held over for a post season exit meeting with management. By doing this publicly it served as a message seemed designed to embarrass management and perhaps make a push to be traded. 

What she did not mention in her interview was that Angel Reese has failed in four years of college and two years of WNBA to develop a productive perimeter shot. Perhaps even if she had said what she said, if she had simply added, “I have to get better, I have to develop a perimeter shot.”

The biggest basketball problem for the Chicago Sky right now is that the two young corner stones of their franchies, Reese and Kamilla Cardosa may not have the ability to play together. This season, when they were both on the floor they each had something like a -10 point differential. Whereas when they played alone, they were each something like a +5. 

To understand the Chicago Sky, one needs only look at the timeline over the last several years. Oct 12, 2023 the Sky hired Teresa Witherspoon as coach with no GM. The Sky hired Jeff Pagliocca on Oct 31, 2023 as GM. Michael Alter is the owner, and this hiring timeline tells you all you need to know about the dysfunction within the Sky. In a strong, healthy organization, you hire a GM who then hires his/her coach. The owner hiring the coach then the GM shows an owner wanting to make the decisions. Unfortunately Chicago professional sports franchises have a history of owners putting their thumbs on the scale, which is part of their horrendous records thru the years. 

Then in the draft, Angel Reese dropped to #6 in the draft. Why did Reese drop to #6, it is speculation on my part but perhaps there were teams who feared they would have to deal with what Chicago is dealing with now. 

The likelihood that both Pagliocca and Reese are both with the Sky next year is not likely. The likelihood that only Pagliocca is with the Sky next year is a more likely option. Drama sometimes sells tickets and gains publicity, but drama seldom produces championships.