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Friday, September 19, 2025

Fever Upset Dream: Breaking It Down














The Fever hung around and hung around, until they won the game. The 87-85 win sends the Fever into a Sunday 2:00pm matchup with the Aces in the WNBA semi-finals on ABC. 


Mitchell

In the first half when Indiana looked more and more like a team missing 5 players, their star did what stars do in big moments. She finished with 19 first half points to keep Indiana in the game, and 24 total points for the game. 


















Turnovers

Aliyah Boston and Odyssey Sims combined to produce 14 assists on 0 turnovers. The three primary ball handlers, Kelsey Mitchell, Sims, and Boston had only 1 turnovers between them. And Indiana had 6 total turnovers for the game. In addition, Indiana had 24 assists on 32 made field goals. 


Different Game

The announcers of most of the WNBA games are not telling us that the play-off games are more physical, they are bragging that the games are more physical. What strikes me about the play-off games is not the physicalness, it is that the referees sometimes officiate them in a way that you feel like you know what a foul is and a foul isn’t. 

Yes, the game was physical but the two teams shot 35 free throws. Throughout most of the season, the referees would have sent the two teams to the line maybe 15-20 times. 

Indiana clearly won things at the foul line. Indiana outscored Atlanta 17-5 on free throws, shooting 24 to only 11 by Atlanta. Atlanta committed 22 fouls to only 14 for the Fever. 

Boston, Sims, and Mitchell shot 20 of those free throws for Indiana. 




















Boston Had the Mismatch

The experts said the key matchup going into this matchup was Boston vs Bre Jones. The basic question, could Boston dominate this matchup? The answer is yes. While Boston only outscored her in game #3 by 14-12, Atlanta had to always send a second defender at Boston to try to stop her. And often it was Boston getting one of her 6 assists, or she was getting a hockey assist because Atlanta rotated to cover the pass out but could not rotate then to the second pass. 


Deadly Ball Screen Offense

Most of the night the Dream switched on Boston’s ball screens. With help defenders on Mitchell and Hull not willing to leave them to help on Boston, it resulted in some guards on an island with Boston. 

One of the most effective ball screen actions was when Hull or Natasha Howard come off on the dribble. Their defenders were not used to being a player on the ball in a screen switch. 

The winning basket when Boston was left wide open was the result of an earlier ball screen. Jones switched out and Canada was left to cover Boston. When the ball moved on, Canada wanted to switch back but Jones was slow to get there. 
















“Play 8, Trust 7”

This is the famous quote used during the NBA play-offs. I don’t think Steph White follows this but she came a lot closer to doing it. There was a subtle slide in minutes of her stars- Mitchell 35, Boston 34, Hull 32. It may not seem like a lot, but bumping each of them up just 4-5 minutes made a difference. 


The Bench

While the additional minutes for Mitchell and Boston were crucial, the bench may have been one of the most important parts of the game. Indiana bench played 48 minutes while the Atlanta bench played only 22 minutes. In particular, Atlanta chose to ride their starters most of the second half which may have contributed to the Dream scoring only 12 fourth quarter points. 

Atlanta was outscored 7-0 nothing in the last 2:32 of the game. During the last 1:38 the Dream missed 2 shots and turned it over 3 times. At the time, I was not happy when White sat Mitchell for the first 2-3 minutes of the fourth quarter. I was about to text a friend, “What is White saving Mitchell for, there is no tomorrow if they lose?” It turns out that Indiana was fresher down the stretch. 

Brianna Turner and Makayla Timpson did what you need bench to come in and do. Turner in 18 minutes had 4 offensive rebounds. A key was that Turner was able to play both some #5 and some #4. And much of the time, Turner matched up guarding Canada, the point guard. I wouldn’t say she shut Canada down but her length seemed more effective than Sims or the other reserve guards. 

Per minute, the best sub of the night was Timpson. In four minutes she had 5 total rebounds with 3 on the offensive end. 


















Energy Wins

Lexie Hull is NOT the best player in the WNBA. She is a very good three point shooter but was not in this game. What Hull is, is a player who busts her butt on defense. And who made the big defensive play at the end of the game, Hull. Hull was guarding in the corner but read the post feed and got the steal. She did in the last 10 seconds what she has done all season. 


High School Gym?

Atlanta plays their home games in an arena that holds 3,500 people. For game #3, they listed attendance at 3,800. At least half the schools of the WB6 Conference hold more people. 

With 95% of veteran players in the WNBA headed to free agency this off-season, places like Atlanta, Washington, and Dallas with small gyms and less revenue may struggle. All three of these teams play in arenas of under 6,300. Whereas Golden State, Indiana, New York, Minnesota, Seattle, and Phoenix all play in arenas of over 17,000 and are frequently or always selling out. 



















Las Vegas

Indiana defeated Las Vegas 2 games to 1 game during the regular season. The last matchup was July 24, almost 2 months ago. The Aces have been a different team during the last two months. 

A crucial question is not whether Boston can stop A’ja Wilson, she cannot. The more intriguing question is whether Boston can be an offensive threat vs. Wilson. 


Following the NBA Lead?

Many “basketball fans” whine about the NBA and don’t watch the NBA. This past spring, the NBA play-offs were fantastic. The NBA play-offs were some of the best basketball I have ever watched. So far the WNBA play-offs are producing the same quality for basketball fans. Fouls being fouls, low turnover numbers, and close games. 



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