All of us who are basketball fans love the NCAA “March Madness.” Both the men’s and women’s tourneys capture our attention from following who is in and out, what the seeds will be, where teams are going, filling out our brackets, and following game after game.
We all get excited when a mid-major pulls an upset, unless it is our favorite team that gets upset. The #16 vs #1 upset that never occurs, until it does occur, gives us that sense that “anything is possible.” For those of us that live in Illinois, it reminds us of the Hebrons or the Cobden. Nationally the upsets remind us of Hoosiers and Hickory. The upset is part of what helps pump up TV numbers.
But don’t be fooled, the tourney is designed to sprinkle in the possibility of only a very few of these upsets. The NCAA Tourney is really the “Power 4 Tourney.” It is set up by the Power 4 teams- the criteria for getting in and the criteria for seeding are all generated by the Power 4.
At one time, NET was the tool for selection and seeding. It was a “secret” formula not shared. The mid-majors have computer experts at their schools, and they cracked the code. The mid-majors then adjusted their schedules to meet the formula. A few more mid-majors made it into the tourney as a result. So the Power 4 schools dropped that and came up with a new secret formula.
Today a big tool is “Quad 1” record. The problem for mid-majors is how do you get Quad 1 wins if the only way you even get to play a school labeled as Quad 1 is if you play them on a neutral court at a tourney in Hawaii or the Caribbean, or you play at the Quad 1. But if you beat a Quad 1 school one year, no Quad 1 team will schedule you for the next year. Quad 1 level teams will seldom go to play at a mid-major.
Any metric you want to look at would tell you that this year the best conference in basketball was the SEC. Thirteen teams were selected to play in the
Indiana State in 2024 is the poster child for Mid-Major treatment. They finished the regular season as the Missouri Valley Champs but lost the conference tourney by 4 points. Their regular season record was 28-6 with losses at Alabama and at Michigan State. No team from the Power 4 conferences played at Indiana State. The Sycamores did not make the NCAA Power Four Tourney. In 2024, 25 of the at-large teams selected ahead of Indiana State had 10 or more losses. And of those teams, there were two teams with 13 losses and two with 14 losses.
It is tough for Mid-Majors to meet the selection criteria because the Power 4 teams won’t schedule them in a way that gives them any opportunity.
I am no expert, but I have a lot of time on my hands. I have some proposals to try to turn it back into a true NCAA Tourney. As you read my proposals, I am sure you will find some good and some bad, and you will probably be right. Don’t shoot down an idea if the concept is good but my details need revision.
Conference Rankings
The first thing is for us to have common understanding of the conferences. The ranking of basketball conferences this season using NET was:
1- SEC, 2- Big 10, 3- Big 12, 4- Big East, 5- ACC
6- Mountain West, 7- Atlantic 10, 8- C-USA, 9- West Coast, 10- Missouri Valley, 11- American, 12- Big West, 13- Ivy
14- Southern, 15- Western Athletic, 16- Summit, 17- Coastal, 18- Big South, 19- Horizon, 20- Sun Belt
Realize that this ranking is fluid and would change from year to year. I put it up just to give a frame of reference.
Increasing Mid-Majors NET Opportunities
Proposal #1 (Mild Change)- Mid-majors in December schedule more conference challenges. Mountain West vs American, Atlantic 10 vs Ivy, Missouri Valley vs USA, West Coast vs Big West. You could match the conferences however you wanted to match them up. Have a metric or committee with each conference that chooses who plays who. Carve out the last week before Christmas where each school will play one game at home and one game on the road vs a school from the other conference.
Proposal #2 (Moderate Change)- Every school in the Power 5 must have set up two contests in December with mid-majors who were in the top 125 NET the year before. So each year they will host one of the these team and they will play on the road vs one of these teams. Think of the excitement this could generate- Duke at Gonzaga, Illinois at Bradley, Iowa at UNI, Kansas at Drake, Indiana at Indiana State, etc.
Proposal #3 (Major Change)- The last week of January would be carved out for the Mid-Major Challenge Cup. A committee formed by the top 8 mid-major conferences from the year before would meet to form matchups. Each team would be assigned one home and one away game. The 8 teams in first place on January 15 in their conference would be matched up to play each other. The second place teams, third place, etc. This would require every conference starting some conference games a week earlier.
Proposal #4 (Seismic Change)- Every conference in America carves out the first week of February to have no games. This also would mean either playing fewer conference games or starting earlier. This would be for the annual “Larry Bird Challenges.”
Top Five Ranked Conferences- Schools ranked in the Top Five would have the teams who were in 1st thru 4th place in their conference on Jan. 25 play each other. They would each play two games- one at home and one on the road. So the first place team in the SEC would play the first place team in the Big 10 and so force.
Larry Bird Challenges- In the Top Five in 5th thru 12th place would be matched to play teams in 1st thru 4th in the 10 highest ranked mid-major conferences. Again, they would each play one at home and one on the road. So from Top Five, 5th/6th would play Mid-Major 1st, Top Five 7/8th play Mid-Major 2nd, etc. Again, a top five conference team would have to play at a mid-major.
Changing Tourney Selection Process
Proposal #5 (Major Change)- Unless a team wins their conference tourney, no team can be selected into the tourney if they did not have a winning record in their conference. No team that is 9-9, 8-10, or 6-12 can make the field unless they win the conference team. It seems like a no-brainer, you can’t make a tourney if you were not a winning team in your conference.
Proposal #6 (Seismic Change)- More teams earn a spot and fewer teams at large teams. In the Top Five Conferences- the top four teams plus the conference tourney champs make the tourney. So up to 5 teams from these conferences can earn a spot. From the top 8 Mid-Major Conferences- the top two teams in conference plus the tourney champs make the tourney field. So in those 8 conferences, up to 3 teams would make the field. The rest of the field would be determined by present criteria.
Potentially the Top 5 could get 25 bids, and the Top 8 Mid-Majors could get 24 bids. That leaves 19 conferences who get one automatic bid. So 25 + 24+ 19=68 teams. the likelihood that in the Top Five conferences and the Top 8 Mid-Majors of the tourney champs being different than either top 4 finishers (Top Five) or the top 2 finishers (Top 8 Mid-Majors) is not going to regularly happen. So there still could be up to 13 additional at-large teams selected.
Fans and teams might appreciate that most of the teams are winning their bids on the floor not in a committee room.
Proposal #7 (Major But Mild)- The Top Five conference schools who run the tourney would not go for most or any of these proposals but one last proposal would be that in the Top 8 Mid-Major conferences, both the conference champion and conference tourney champions advance.
Blow It Up
In all likelihood the Top Five conferences will never go for any of the above proposals. Perhaps the Mid-Majors should explore the option of breaking off and forming their own tourney.
I realize that there is huge money in the TV contracts for the NCAA Power 4 Tourney. It is probably unlikely that the Missouri Valley, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, etc. would ever want to give up the money they get from the TV contracts, even if their cut is rigged to be smaller than it should be.
What would happen to the value of the TV contract for the
Could a Mid-Major Tourney do things to enhance fan interest? They might look at things like playing early rounds on-campus like the women’s NCAA. Perhaps go to international rules would be interesting. Maybe Elam ending would make games more exciting. Or maybe they just showcase Mid-Major basketball.
There are 55 mid-majors with on-campus arenas that hold over 8,000. And there are a total of 31 mid-majors with on-campus arenas of over 10,000. Imagine what a Regional finals at an on-campus facility at Wichita State (10,500), Temple (10,200), Boise State (12,600), and Alabama-Birmingham (8,500). Then a Final Four at UNLV (18,700).
Please share your thoughts in the comments with your name.
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