Caitlin Clark: Whether Back or Not, It’s Going to Be Tough

Everything was great until it wasn’t

With 10 games to go for the Indiana Fever, there is a sense of desperation for fans. Without Caitlin Clark, they started their west coast road trip on a bright note. Then they got dumped by the LA Sparks and just hammered by Phoenix. The last two losses could be dismissed as- underhanded vs strong teams at the end of a long road trip. 

And the positive was that the Fever had some easy games coming up when they returned home. They had lowly Chicago, a struggling Washington that had traded one of their top players away, then Dallas who had only 8 wins on the year, and then headed to last place Connecticut. 

So when the Fever returned there was a sense that “everything is going as planned.” The idea was to weather the tough road trip, come home and get the “give me’s” and hopefully Clark would come back after the Connecticut win. 

Then the bottom fell out, the Fever lost to both Washington and Dallas, and really looked bad in the losses. In front of their huge home crowds, both Dallas and Washington played with more emotion. 

Yep, we know the refs are bad but there are bigger problems

The Fever were left to having Sophie Cunningham complain after the Dallas game about Paige Bueckers getting special treatment from the refs. And then after the Washington game, it was the all too common complaining by Coach White about the double standard of the refs. While as a biased fan, I may agree with their assessment, it is becoming tiring act with the complaining about refs. And you combine that with the persistent whining to refs by Caitlin Clark on the bench, it appears to be becoming almost part of the culture. 

Are the injuries related?

The speculation was that Fever were staging things to have Clark come back after the Suns game this Sunday. They have a gap and don’t play until Sunday. That would mean Clark would have missed 13 games before coming back. The idea was to give her 3-4 good practice before coming back. This approach would seem sound but one would think if indeed she is coming back for the Liberty game, it might have been better to have had her play just 10-15 minutes in a less competitive Suns game first. 

Now the latest speculation is that because she has not actually practiced any with the team, that her return may still be a couple weeks off. 

As a former coach, I understand handling injuries is a challenge. You have to read what the player says and the player has to try to read how they feel. An advantage at this higher level is that they have access to testing that can help clarify some of the issue. Obviously the trainers, the doctors, Clark, and the coaching staff have a better idea of what is going on that we do as fans. 

As an anxious fan, the things that pop up in my mind relate mainly to treating this injury differently because of how they treated the previous injury. If I am correct that the first injury was to the left leg and this injury is to the right leg, are they really connected injuries? Saying now that she was brought back too early for the first injury because she had the injury to the other leg, did she somehow favor the first leg? I am not questioning the injury, I am questioning what the team has told people about what is going on. 

Time to ride the best more minutes?

The Fever have now signed two hardship guards- Odyssey Sims and Kyra Lambert. Sims has played and been waived in the WNBA this year. Lambert played in Europe where she was Eurocup Guard of the Year while averaging 15.4ppg. Lambert just arrived and has not played. Sims has played and looks like a guard that has been with the team less than a week. 

For now, the Fevers best roster is moving Mitchell or Cunningham to handle the ball, or even have Boston initiate the offense. After Colson and McDonald were injured, Lexie Hull’s minutes have bumped up by about 6 minutes per game. 

I realize that the players cannot be “run into the ground” while Clark is out, but it is curious that there seems to be no bump in minutes for the core of players. Looking at ten of the “elite WNBA players” on other rosters- Ionescu, Diggins, Bueckers, Plum, Wilson, Citron, Collier, Thomas, Gray, R.Howard- as a group, they average 33.8 minutes per game with a range of 31 minutes for Wilson and a high of 36 minutes for Gray. 

For the Fever, Hull, Boston, Cunningham, and Howard are all playing under 30 minutes per game. Only Mitchell at 31 minutes is over 30. Right now there are chunks of time when these players are off the floor where the Fever cannot score. In particular, it would be positive to see minutes of Boston and Cunningham bumped up if they can handle it. 

With Clark out and then the other two point guards, it impacts the Fever in terms of figuring out how to handle the point guard spot. What we don’t think about as much is how it impacts the opponents. The opponents have made major adjustments that impact the Fever. 

First the top perimeter defender now is guarding Mitchell not Clark. Mitchell has proven to be a solid scorer vs other team’s second best perimeter defender but now if you look at Mitchell’s stat line vs the top defenders- she is really up and down from game to game. And now other defenders don’t have to leave the perimeter shooters to help on Clark. 

Probably the major problem for the Fever is the inability to get Boston the ball regularly in the short rolls. 

Even if she comes back, it is going to be tough

WNBA Standings as of today:

1- Minnesota 28-5

2- Atlanta 21-12

3- New York 21-13

4- Phoenix 19-13

5- Las Vegas 20-14

6- Golden State 18-15

7- Indiana 18-16

8- Seattle 17-17

9- Los Angeles 16-17

10- Washington 15-18

The top 8 teams will make the play-offs, with #1 thru #4 hosting the opening round games. It is not likely that Indiana could pass up both Phoenix and Los Vegas to get in top four. 

Not to be doom and gloom, but even with Clark coming back, it seems the likely settling spot for the Fever would be at #8. Both Golden State and Washington seem unlikely to stay in the top 8, but all year we have thought Golden State would eventually fade so I am not sure they will. Washington traded one of their best players away but all that is done is free up Sonia Citron even more. So it is not a give that they could not challenge Indiana for #8. 

Los Angeles has their pieces back and have been winning with regularity over the last month. Seattle picked up one more player and seem likely to surge. 

With 10 games to go, Indiana’s schedule looks like this- Connecticut, Minnesota, Minnesota, Seattle, Los Angeles, Golden State, Phoenix, Chicago, Washington, Minnesota. 

So in the remainder of the schedule, Indiana has only 2 games vs one of the bottom three teams. Seattle, Phoenix, New York, and Atlanta all have 3 games vs the bottom three teams. Las Vegas plays 4 games vs the bottom teams. 

Minnesota, Atlanta, and New York have separated themselves from the pack. Indiana has 3 games vs that group. Golden State has 4 vs the big three, and Las Vegas has 3 games like Indiana. Washington and Phoenix only have one game left vs those teams. 

Minnesota has only lost 6 games and is expected to be getting Napheesa Collier back. Indiana plays them three times. Los Angeles, Washington, and Phoenix don’t play Minnesota again. 

With 10 games to go, Indiana has the toughest schedule left. Washington, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Phoenix have the easiest schedule left. So while Indiana is in 7th place, the teams in 8th thru 10th have easier schedules left.