Deep Dive- Threes in NBA, College, WB6

The game of basketball has changed in the last twenty-five years. The game has seen an increase in the number of three’s taken, and it has seen a decrease in the number of mid-range two’s taken. 

I listened to a podcast that looked at this year’s NBA season to date. They shared that 42.3% of all NBA shots were three’s, and that 56% of the Celtics shots were three’s. Hearing this, it sent me on a mission to see what is going on in both men’s and women’s college basketball, as well as HS boy’s and girl’s basketball.

For my stats, my sample is the following:

College Men & Women- I took each of the top 20 teams on December 14 and looked back at their most recent game. 

HS Girls and Boys- I took the Western Big Six Conference stats for the first three conference games for each team. 

Percent of Total Shots Are Three’s

College Men- 42.7%

NBA-  42.3%

HS Boys- 36.8%

HS Girls- 36.7%

College Women-33.2%

Teams With Highest Pct. Of Shots From Threes

NBA- Boston Celtics 56%

College Men- Duke 57%, Ole Miss 55%, Marquette 54%

College Women- Tennessee 70%, Kentucky 52%, Oklahoma 51%

HS Girls- Rock Island 47%, Moline 43%

HS Boys- Sterling 47%, Geneseo 43%, Moline 41%

eFG% on Threes

College Women- .603

College Men- .525

NBA- .510

HS Boys- .442

HS Girls- .423

EFG% on Two’s

College Men- .544

NBA- .540

College Women- .534

HS Boys- .509

HS Girls- .396

Thoughts

NBA Threes Up- The NBA had leveled off at 39-40% of attempts being threes for about 4 years. It has bounced up to 42% this year. Their eFG% for 3’s 51% and 2’s 54% shows that their mix of threes vs two’s is probably healthy, and the reduced number of mid-range two’s taken is lifting the 2’s eFG%.

College Men’s eFG%- College men with eFG% 2’s 54% and 3’s 53% show a healthy balance in 3’s attempted. 

College Women Fewest 3’s- College women are taking the fewest threes of any of the groups. Perhaps their selectivity has allowed the extremely high eFG% for threes of 60% in their group. 

HS vs College Women- HS Girls- Perhaps the huge difference in College Women vs HS Girls in both eFG% of 2’s (53-40) and of 3’s (60-42) shows the gap in skill levels of the two groups- probably in both shooting ability and offensive skills to get open for better shots. 

Celtics vs Knicks- The defending NBA champs, the  Celtics, take the highest number of threes. The team with the most efficient offense (points per possession), the Knicks, take the lowest number of threes. 

Need to Change?- In recent press conference, the NBA Commissioner addressed a “concern” with the high number of three being taken in the NBA. Part of the concern is that some fans view that offenses have become “cookie cutter,” the same. The commissioner was not saying they are going to change things, just that they were looking at if they needed to make changes. 

Possible Changes- Among pundants, it is discussed extending the arc to the same distance all the way around, to eliminate the corner three. This would likely clog the top of the floor and make the corners not used. In other words, the NBA’s attempt to spread the floor with the longer three would not exist. Another idea is to limit a team to 40 three attempts per game. After a team gets to 40, then all shots from that point on are worth only 2 points no matter where they are taken. 

Inconsistency?- The high level of threes attempted can create inconsistency for a team. In the NBA Cup Championship game, OKC shot only 5 of 32 from three. 

Advice- If a HS male or female has dreams of playing at the next level, there better be one thing you can do- shoot threes!!

Just Remember- Galesburg girls basketball still holds the National and State record for girls basketball for making 397 threes during the 2011 season!!