Coach Zach Chu worked as an assistant for Rick Carlisle in Dallas, then in Indiana. His area of expertise was to use analytics to help drive decision-making. Chu went from working in the pros to be an assistant with SMU, and now is the head men’s basketball coach at Radford.
Here are some thoughts from Coach Chu:
He believes that the role of analytics in is to take a “problem solving approach to basketball, anchored with data.”
Four Functions of Analytics in College Basketball
1- Optimize personnel selection- he gives an example from his time at SMU. Analytics showed that an undersized guard at mid-major level who shot a lot of free throws would not succeed on major level because they would not call the fouls.
2- Optimize NIL spending
3- Optimize play development- This would be applicable to high school. Use data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of a player, then develop a road map of how to change this.
4- Optimize game strategy- He talks about how they found a huge difference statistically between their offensive efficiency in possessions started with a rebound vs offensive efficiency in possessions where they had to take the ball out after makes. This data allowed them to focus on those possessions and determine why the big difference in the offensive efficiency, which I will go into next.
Four Out vs Five Out
Coach Chu found a huge difference between the NBA and college (and one can assume HS) was the distance of the three point arc. The deeper three point arc creates much greater spacing than in college or HS. The spacing allows NBA teams to go 5 Out and still have possible driving lanes. The shorter three in college and HS prevents adequate space in a 5 Out set so that is why many colleges prefer to go to Four Out to create larger gaps.
For Coach Chu, data showed big discrepancy in offensive efficiency after rebounds vs after made baskets. As they broke it down, they believed it went to the concepts of Five Out vs Four Out. After misses, they always had a post become a rim runner. So after misses they were flowing into Four Out. After misses then, even if they were not getting passes ahead to the rim runner- they had gaps for people to drive and as a result they got more open corner threes.
The adjustment that the stats are allowing them to see to make is that they are no longer having their post take the ball out after makes. They want the post who is the rim runner to go. Instead they are having their #3/#4 designated to take it out. Thus they accomplish several things with this adjustment:
A- Get a rim runner
B- Get into Four Out earlier and create space
C- More likely have a shooter trailing
Bits and Pieces
1- Non-shooters are better running to a wing on a break vs the corner. A defender who can sag off a corner player is in much better position to defender drivers and ball screens.
2- Getting to the rim and getting to FT line on fouls are still the two most effective shooting areas. They are more valuable than threes.
3- The “45 drive” off ball screen action or elbow actions is the hardest drive to cover. The weakside defenders can get off more when the ball is in the corner, whereas it is much harder to rotate on a “45 drive.”
4- The Indiana Pacers have shown the value of being random and unpredictable in your actions offensively.
5- HS and college teams need to have sets to get the ball to players who need more touches. And on HS and college level, sets are needed to manager and slow down opponents runs.
6- All levels, teams are most efficient in the first 10 seconds of a possession. All levels that have shot clocks, those teams are least efficient in the last 10 seconds of a shot clock.
7- A team that wants to be an uptempo team should chart offensive possessions in each quarter. Too many uptempo teams abandon uptempo in the last 4 minutes of a game without realizing it.
8- Coach MUST use analytics to develop an understand of good vs bad shot selection. Shooting should be charted whenever possible to give this feedback- drills, practice, scrimmages, games. And a helpful thing is to show players an NBA chart of shooting percentages by spots on the floor.
9- The Four Factors for winning/losing are: 1) Shot efficiency, 2) Turnovers, 3) Rebounds, 4) Free Throws. The stat that has the highest correlation to winning and losing is shot efficiency.
10- Great offensive teams in the NBA like past Golden State Warriors and this year’s Indiana Pacers usually are at the top of the league in numbers of passes made per game. Increasing number of passes does several things:
A- Ball movement creates defensive movement
B- Ball movement allows more catch and “stampede” opportunities
C- Ball movement builds a culture of unselfishness
11- In the NBA some of the great offensive teams can be in the top 5 of the league in both Rim Scoring and Three Scoring. Defensively, the best teams cannot both protect the rim and the three. An example- the Milwaukee Bucks over the last five years have been in the top five in Rim Defense but in the bottom 5 in Three Defense. The point is that a coach needs to determine their priority.
12- The best three point defensive teams in the NBA close out faster than other teams. In the NBA they have the ability to figure the speed of a player’s close out. The best three point defensive teams have a much greater urgency to close out.
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