WNBA- What's The Future

The WNBA gets back into games tonight (Thursday). The season is over half over but what can we watch during the rest of the season?

Williams and Meesseeman- Where will they end up playing? 

The WNBA has a “Prioritization Clause” in their present contract. It basically sets up if a player chooses to sign a contract with a non-WNBA team, and that other team’s schedule interferes with the WNBA, it makes the player ineligible to sign with an WNBA team. The basic concept is that the WNBA does not want to become a “secondary league.” Five players who previously were ruled ineligible have just been ruled eligible.

The top two players in this category are Gabby Williams (France) and Emma Meesseman (Belgium). They were free agents going into this WNBA season but chose not to sign to workout and play with their national team. Williams (UConn) was the player who made the shot to tie the game vs USA but was 2 inches over the line. Meeseman lost in bronze medal game and was Belgium’s leading scorer. Both were ruled eligible as it was their national team they were with, not a contract with a pro team.

Williams has played with Chicago Sky and Seattle Storm. She is rumored to be in negotiations with with Seattle, Phoenix, and New York. She would be an immediate impact player as a 5’11” forward. Meesseman is a dominant 6’4” post and has played for the Sky and Mystics. She was the Finals MVP in 2019.

My Prediction- Depending on who they sign with, they have the ability to impact the balance of power in the WNBA. If Williams goes with Seattle, it will push them into NY and LV range- make them competitive with the top.

Olympic Fatigue- Will teams with multiple players who played in the Olympics come out slow? 

Teams like New York and Las Vegas were both playing well the last 10 games before the break. Will some of the Olympians be involved in load management down the stretch?

My Prediction- If there is fatigue, it will be more mental than physical. The WNBA is not an 80 game schedule- they will be alright.

Top 6 Teams- Will there begin to be any separation? 

Connecticut and Minnesota started out fast. Phoenix started out slow with Grimes being hurt. Will these three teams be able to stick with New York, Las Vegas, and Seattle headed down the stretch?

My Prediction- Connecticut added Mabrey as a shooter but still lacks shooting. Minnesota is healthy now. Taurasi proved she is still good but not Taurasi good. Minnesota hangs with the top teams. Connecticut and Phoenix will not. Eventually it will be NY, LV, Seattle, and Minnesota.

Teams 7-8- Will Chicago or Indiana make a surge to move into the top 6? Or will they actually fade from the group?

My Prediction- Indiana will make a run at Phoenix and Chicago will make a run at Atlanta.

Attendance- With everyone heading back to school, will attendance stay up?

My Prediction- Yes, kids don’t study anymore.

Player of the Year- Will A’ja Wilson of LV win it again?

My Prediction- Yes

Rookie of the Year- Does it matter if Chicago or Indiana have the worst record?

My Prediction- No. Chicago had a much better record last year, Clark and Indiana have improved much more. If Clark continues her points and assists numbers that she had going the last three weeks- it will be a runaway.

Championship- Will Las Vegas repeat again?

My Prediction- It would seem to be between LV and NY. On paper it would seem like LV should be the pick. I just think you can’t rule out NY because of what Ionescu and Stewart can do if they get on a roll. And the sleeper could be Seattle IF they can land Williams. I never win when I bet so my choice now- NY unless Seattle gets Williams.

WNBA’s Future- WNBA seems like it is taking off, is its future solid going forward? 

The players can opt out of the Collective Bargaining Agreement at the end of this season (before Nov. 1, 2024). Most of people who seem to know the inside of the issues say it is a no-brainer for the players to opt out. That will mean the players will play the next season (2025) under the present contract but after that, a new one must be figured out.

Major issues revolve around transportation, salaries, revenue sharing, and maternity leave. The WNBA TV contract (negotiated by the NBA) give them a bounce going forward, but definitely not at the level that it should have been. As an outsider looking at it, if you look at TV viewing numbers and revenue- the WNBA’s bump is a bump in comparison to the NBA’s jump in revenue. And under the present contracts, NBA players receive 50% of tv revenue, while WNBA receives 20% of revenue.

The WNBA players seem to realize they are in a good sport, and obviously they realize their league is still somewhat fragile. The players have put together a team of economists, labor relations experts, lawyers, and media experts.

My Prediction- Unless owners are willing to really move on revenue sharing, 2025 could be the last season for the WNBA. There are other investors who would love to jump on the WNBA bandwagon as owners. The ABA went after the NBA. If the present owners don’t move on issues, it is entirely possible we see a WABA forming. I certainly hope they can work things out, but I am betting there are some business people in Des Moines who hope they cannot work it out.