Caitlin Clark has become famous for her “logo threes.” While obviously she can make “logo threes,” are they statistically a good shot or not?
When Michael Jordan was in his prime, I noticed how many boys players before and after practice would line up trying to dunk the ball “like Mike.” While it seemed to bring joy to the players, I thought most of them would have been better off to spend their time working on their jump shot.
In the mid-‘80’s when the three point shot went in, it seemed like boys and girls players before and after practice spent all their time shooting three point shots. It didn’t matter if they were a good shooter or a bad shooter- you shot three point shots.
So pan ahead now to the era of Steph Curry and Caitlin Clark shooting “logo threes.” I wonder how this movement will impact high school players. Will we now have HS players shooting from 30 feet before and after practice? In games will HS players be looking to shoot 10 feet off the arc? And my question is- should they actually be working on this shot?
Starting point is to understand what the distances are that we are talking about.
High School Three= 19’9” (Same all the way around)
College Three= 22’1.75” (Corner 22’0”- only 1.75” closer)
College “Deep Three”= 25’-30’ (This is how they label a deep three)
NBA/WNBA Three= 23’9”
NBA/WNBA Corner Three= 22’0”
NBA/WNBA “Deep Three”= 30’ or longer.
Let’s start by looking at what the best three point shooters shoot at these different levels.
College women’s career best- Kaleena Mosquada-Lewis (UConn)- 44.7%
Past Season at Iowa- Gabbie Marshall- 47.1%, Caitlin Clark 40.0%, Kate Martin 35.4%
Career at Iowa- Caitlin Clark 37.7%
College Men’s Career Shooting- Steph Curry 41.2%, JJ Reddick 40.8%
NBA Shooting- Career Best- Steve Kerr 45.4% (Steph Curry 42.6%)
NBA Season Best- Kyle Korver- 53.6%
WNBA Career Best- Jennifer Azzi 45.8%
WNBA Season Leader Last Year- Tyasha Harris- 46.4%
Historically in the WNBA, Kelsey Plum has been 39.4% and Sue Bird was 39.2%. This year in the WNBA, Alisha Gray of Atlanta is leading in three point percentage with 54.1%. There are a total of six players in the entire WNBA shooting over 40% from three point line. Kate Martin is at 35.3%, Kelsey Plum at 34.4%, Sabrina Ionescu at 33.8%, Jewel Loyd at 31.8%, and Caitlin Clark at 29.7%.
Right now, none of the traditionally great shooters seem to be shooting at a high percentage. Some of this may do to the WNBA cramming as many games in before they take an Olympic break this year. But students of statistics would expect players to all bounce to their norms as the season progresses.
It would seem that shooting over 40% in both college and pro hoops is considered very good three point shooting, while 35-40% three point shooting seems to be decent shooting. Looking at the numbers, Steph Curry is a great three point shooter while Caitlin Clark would be considered a very good this past year, and decent three point shooter on her career. Either would be players who you would want to get three point shots for in a game.
We need to look at the “deep threes” to answer our initial question. Here are total stats on “Deep Threes” for the six NBA players who took the most “Deep Threes” in the last 25 years.
1- Damian Lillard Normal Three- .371 Deep Three- .323 (He has taken most deep three)
2- Trae Young Normal- .335 Deep- .332
3- Steph Curry Normal- .427 Deep- .362
4- Kyle Lowery Normal- .368 Deep- ..275
5- Lebron James Normal- .321 Deep- .299
6- Luka Doncic Normal- .342 Deep- .268
If you go with my arbitrary evaluation of 40+% as very good and 35-40% as decent, of this group only Curry is very good and only Lowery fits into decent when it come to normal three point shooting. And of this group, only Curry fits into decent category on “deep threes.”
Caitlin Clark was a 40.0% shooter on normal threes in her senior year. According to CBB analytics, this past year Clark shot 39.2% on “deep threes.” Her numbers are almost identical for regular threes and for deep threes. The numbers for her college career would place Clark as on the edge of being very good or elite as a three point shooter from normal range.
If I was looking for someone to shoot a normal three, statistically I would take Sabrina Ionescu and Steph Curry. If needed a long range three, I would take Curry and Clark.
The definition of “deep three” in college and in the pros is different, but there is no pro or college player that I have been able find stats on who shoots almost the same from regular three distance and from deep threes. Statistically it makes absolute sense for Clark and Curry to be shooting logo threes. They shoot a much better percentage from “deep threes” than the average player, and for Clark it seems as accurate from 30 feet as from 22 feet.
Looking at the stats, I would not recommend high school players start trying to shoot logo threes. If you look at the percentages of the best players in the world, it might be correct to say only two players in the world should be shooting logo threes. Just because you can make a logo three, that doesn’t make it a good shot- the numbers of the best in the world show that for all but the VERY ELITE, there is a significant drop off when you move off the line. High school players are best served by working on 19’9” to 23’ shot- stats bear it out.
Steph Curry and Caitlin Clark are the exceptions- and that is why they are exciting to watch!
No comments:
Post a Comment