Pomeroy and Sperber are deep into basketball analytics. You may say you aren’t an “analytics coach”, I would dispute that. Every coach makes countless decisions based on their sense of analytics.
** Who do you send to the foul line for a technical- analytics.
** Why do a you tell a player to quit shooting threes- analytics.
** Why do you sit certain players at the end of a game- analytics.
It may be that some coaches rely more on analytics than other coaches, but all coaches make some decisions based on stats. And it might be argued that some coaches don’t make a lot of decisions based on analytics because they have never taken the time to study analytics- they don’t know analytics.
During the season as a coach, you don’t have time to take a course on analytics. An off-season project might be to look at the course that Pomeroy and Sperber have on analytics in relation to basketball decisions.
Here is just a snapshot of some of the things that Pomeroy and Sperber discussed in the Slappin’ Glass Podcast.
1- If the game is close at half-time, the most predictive stat of how the second half will turn out is 3 point shooting percentage. If two teams have played a close half and one team is shooting poorly from three in that half- it is much more likely that the poorer shooting team will win in the second half.
2- The most common way to measure pace/tempo is by number of possessions. Number of possessions does not measure how fast some teams play. In college men’s basketball, UConn and Purdue have a lower number of possessions but they are both teams who play with tempo. They are fast in their actions and they tend to run more sets in their offense. So one thing for coaches to consider is not just number of possessions but what is the speed of your team in their half-court offense?
3- Playing fast is not the key, if there is a shot clock, avoiding late clock shots is what is important. In college men’s basketball, in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock, 38% on 2’s and 24% on 3’s.
4- Does defense wins championships? Usually championship teams rank high in both offense and defense, but the lean statistically is that good offenses tend to win championships.
5- Skill coaches work to help guards develop their floaters. The floater may be one of the least effective shots statistically. The 10 foot floater in college is made an average of 39% and in the NBA is only 45%.
6- In college men’s basketball, they looked at the effectiveness of different actions off the ball screen.
Player with ball shooting scores average of 0.88 points per shot
Player with ball shooting three off dribble- 0.90
Player rolling scores at- 1.10
7- According to them, posts up get a bad rap.
Scoring on post up with defender behind- 0.84
Post seals defender- 1.20
Passes out of post- 1.09
8- What is the value of taking quick two when down late in game vs. taking the three?
Late game, quick two’s, the shooting pct is around 58%.
It would seem that the magic time to always take the 3 would be at 10 seconds.
9- Do you foul or play it out if up 3? The magic time to foul before they can shoot a three is 6-8 seconds. Earlier than that, you are just dong what the other team is trying to do when they are on defense- stop the clock and create more possessions. Under 6 seconds the fear is that you may catch the player in the shooting act.
10- Should you sit a player with 2 fouls in the first half? Elite coaches come down on opposite sides of this debate. The most famous who says to keep playing them is Jeff VanGundy. Pomeroy and Sperber find the handling of the last two minutes of the first half differently than the first two minutes of the second half as lacking logic. The more important questions are:
Can you put the player guarding someone who is not a threat?
Can you play a zone and protect them?
Does a guard have more control of not fouling than a post has?
Who comes off the bench for that position?
There are lots of factors that influence the decision but there tends to be evidence that coaches sit players earlier and longer than they need to sit them.
11- The most variable stat in basketball today is the 3 point shooting percentage. Even if you are a good shooting team, it cannot be depended on.
12- Two of the more stable stats are your opponents 2 point shooting percentage and your offensive 2 point shooting percentage. After several games, both these numbers tend to stabilize. These numbers will be a very good indicator of the quality of your defense and the quality of your offense.
13- What is the best approach to defending ball screens? Remember that offensively the best option in a ball screen is to hit the roller. The more aggressive your screen defense- trapping, blitzing, and hard hedges- the more likely you will be taking the ball out of the dribblers hands and getting it to the roller. The more passive the defense- drop coverage- the more you will encourage the ball handler to shoot. Analytically it appears that teams are successful with any of the methods.
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