Caitlin Clark- It’s A Long Season But

With the Fever this year, there have been some highs and some lows.

*** Inconsistent first few games.

*** Clark injured

*** Clark and Fever explode vs. New York Liberty

*** Fever win the East and will play for the Commissioners Cup

*** Fever looks dominate early vs Golden State and Las Vegas then falter.

It is a long season- 44 games, but having played 13 games, the season is about 30% over for the Fever. 

Going into the season, most Fever fans had high expectations with the return of the four key players- Clark, Boston, Mitchell, and Hull. Then adding Howard, Cunningham, and Bonner- many fans hoped that maybe the Fever could compete with New York and Minnesota for a title. 

Again, there is a long ways to go, but at this point the league seems to be separating into 4 tiers…

Tier #1- Minnesota 12-1

Tier #2- New York 10-3, Phoenix 11-4, Atlanta 10-4, Seattle 9-5

Tier #3- Golden State 7-6, Las Vegas 6-7, Indiana 6-7, Washington 6-8

Tier #4- The rest

There is a long way to go, but my hopes for Indiana would be that they can:

A- Avoid #8 or #7 seed and be matched first round with New York or Minnesota 

B- My hope would be that the Fever could still work up to #3 seed. 

What is happening to the Fever? 

1- They are not getting consistent help from the backups to Boston.

2- Howard and Cunningham have shown flashes but not the numbers one had hoped for, while Bonner has not contributed.

3- Caitlin Clark has been an inconsistent performer- kind of high risk/high reward.

A year ago Caitlin Clark led the WNBA in assists but also led the WNBA in turnovers at 5.6 turnovers/game. 5.6 turnovers was VERY high for the good point guards in both the WNBA and the NBA. Part of the growth for this season was that the turnover numbers would go down. 

In Clark’s first 3 games, the numbers went down. She averaged 9.0 assists and only 3.3 turnovers per game. Of all her stats, thru three games, the lower turnovers impressed me the most. 

The problem is that in her last five games, she is averaging 8.8 assists but is averaging 7.0 turnovers/game. Championship teams and very good teams cannot have a point guard turning it over 7.0 per game. 

Here is how Caitlin compares when it comes to assists per game compared to other good WNBA and NBA point guards:

Tyrese Haliburton 9.2, Caitlin Clark 8.9, Jalen Brunson 7.3, Paige Bueckers 6.8, Skylar Diggins 6.2, Steph Curry 6.0, Kelsie Plum 5.5, Sabrina Ionescu 5.2

How does it compare to other good point guard’s turnover averages? (Note NBA plays 48 minutes and WNBA 40 so all of the NBA stats tend to be Tyrese Haliburton 1.6, Sabrina Ionescu 2.4, Paige Bueckers 2.5, Jalen Brunson 2.5, Steph Curry 2.9, Skylar Diggins 3.0, Clark (1st 3 games) 3.3, Kelsie Plum 3.4, Clark (last 5 games) 7.0

In the last five games, Caitlin is turning the ball over 2-3 times more than other good point guards. In the WNBA, the turnover doesn’t just take away an offensive possession, often it is creating easy transition opportunities. 

Plus in the first three games, Clark shot 9 for 24= 38% from threes, and in last five games, she has shot 14-48= 29%. 

How does this compare to other good point guards? Skylar Diggins 44%, Steph Curry 40%, Tyrese Haliburton 39%, Jason Brunson 38%, Clark (1st 3 games) 38%, Kelsie Plum 36%, Sabrina Ionescu 33%, Paige Bueckers 33%, Clark (last 5 games) 29%. 

So yes, it’s a long season but….