As the WNBA has passed their halfway mark and approaches the Olympic break, I have some questions about the WNBA, the Fever, and Caitlin Clark.
1- Why the big difference in minutes played in the WNBA vs. NBA?
The top 8 players in terms of minutes per game in the WNBA are playing over 34 minutes per game (with 40 minute game). In the NBA only 7 players played over 34 minutes per game (despite games being 48 minutes). So in NBA the top 7 players played 72% of the game, whereas in WNBA 31 players are playing 72% of games.
I don't have the answer- lack of depth forces them to play more minutes? Games being only 40 minutes allows players to play more minutes? Only 40 games, allows them to play more?
2- With some of the young Fever players, is there a plan to develop them or has a decision been made that they don't have a future with the Fever?
Two of their young players, Lexie Hull (6 games DNP, 12 min./game) and Grace Berger 16 games DNP, 10 min/game). Hull has played more minutes lately, but neither has been getting enough time during games to develop. If they are not giving players game minutes, I would hope the Fever and all of the WNBA teams have skill development people on staff who are helping them elevate their skills. Hull seems to be athletic and have good size- someone needs to be working on her shot. I would advocate getting Hull 15-20 minutes per game, and get her on your shooting machine- make 300 threes on non-game days, and make 150 on game days. You are not going to win the WNBA title this year- make one of your successes that you turned Hull into a rotation player.
3- Will the WNBA ever increase the length of games or the 40 game schedule?
My guess is that the 40 minute game would only change if TV demands more ad space. It is more likely TV will ask for more "TV timeouts" in the existing 40 minute games. The 40 game schedule is more likely to move up to bring in more revenue to increase player compensation.
4- Caitlin Clark has shown great willingness to work on her game, what does she need to work on?
I am not a skill development person but I have posed that question to people above my pay grade. They have all responded that she needs to develop dribble moves to create space. In other words to get the defenders to have back off.
And the team must clean up their spacing so when she drives if someone is going to rotate, there need to be open passes. In classic dribble drive, when she drives, there should be shooters in each corner, a shooter directly behind her, and a big in the dunker spot on the other side of the drive.
My "experts" all said with her skills and her work ethic, they would be surprised if we didn't see her become harder to guard after the Olympic break. While it may be disappointing to many that she is not on the Olympics, she will probably do some fine tuning.
5- Will Caitlin Clark win the assist title?
Right now, the leaders are: (1) Alyssa Thomas (Conn) 7.9, (2) Clark (Ind) 7.8, (3) Cloud (Phx) 7.2, Diggins-Smith (Sea) 6.7, (5) Ionescu (NY) 6.2. In her last 5 games, Clark is averaging 12.4 assists per game. It seems like she will.
Speaking of assists, I think in all of basketball, they need to change the rules regarding what an assist is and what it is not. If a player passes to another player- the player catches the ball and shoots, but is fouled- it is not an assist for the passer. I feel strongly that if you pass and the player is fouled shooting- if the player shooting the FT makes just one of the FT's- the pass becomes an assist. The pass resulted in 1-2 points, and the pass resulted in getting a foul on the other team. Please- write to your congressman to get this changed.
6- How do the WNBA play-offs work?
The top 8 teams make the playoffs. The first round is 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5. In the first round it is best of three games with the first two games at the highest seed. So if the lower seed can steal one game, they will get to the deciding game and have it at home. This format has to be a cost saving plan for the WNBA vs. playing alternating sites each game.
The semis and finals are best of 5 games with the first two games at the highest seed, the next two at the lower seed, and game 5 at the highest seed.
7- Will the Fever make the play-offs?
Right now, the Fever are in 7th place with 0.5 game lead over #8 Chicago and 2.0 game lead over Atlanta. The Fever are 2.5 games behind Phoenix. My guess would be the Fever will not move up to 6 and will not move down to 9. My guess would be that the Fever finish in 7th and will play either New York or Las Vegas in the first round.
8- Who will win the WNBA this year?
My prediction is it will again be a New York vs Las Vegas finals with Las Vegas winning. If Ionescu gets back her three point accuracy of last year, and Stewart improves from three point range it might flip. I just don’t think ANYONE has an answer for A’ja Wilson, and Kelsie Plum’s energy is hard for anyone to match.
9- Who will win the Rookie of the Year Award?
All of the sports talking heads will keep saying it close so they can have that conversation. This is a good thing because the more they talk about the WNBA, the better it is. Clark will probably win the assist title, and Reese will may win the rebound title, but will battle Wilson. At this point, Caitlin Clark would win the award- she is 16.7ppg, 34% threes, 89% ft's, 5.9rpg, 7.8apg, 1.5spg. Reese is 13.8ppg, 41% Fg, 11.9rpg, 1.8apg, 1.5spg.
Last year Indiana won 13 total games- this year they have already won 10. Last year Chicago won 18 games and have now won 9 games with the season over half over.
Angel Reese is having a very good rookie year, but despite what talking heads are saying, Caitlin Clark is firmly in control of the Rookie of the Year Award.
10- Can Caitlin Clark ever become truly one of the WNBA GOATS if she keeps turning the ball over?
If you asked Sam Dekker (2015 Wisconsin), he would say that Bo Ryan could take care of the turnover problem in simple order. Sam was a free spirited, aggressive player for Bo Ryan- Bo's rule was if you turned the ball over, you were subbed out. It didn't matter who you were, you sat. Wisconsin led the nation with fewest turnovers.
Despite being a big Bo Ryan fan, he would not be the answer. Besides leading the nation in fewest turnovers, the Badgers also had one of the slowest offenses. Part of Clark's greatness is the energy and aggressiveness she plays with. Her basketball greatness is her ability to thread the needle with passes that as a fan you don't even anticipate. The best in the NBA average around 4 turnovers, Clark is at about 5. Her number will gradually go down. Early she had a lot of turnovers on passes out of the ball screens, she now recognizes the length of the defenders and gets those passes thru. So I say no to Bo Ryan, and with time she will figure it out. But she has to figure it out.
11- It seems like at Iowa, sometimes Clark got the outlet on the fastbreaks and other times she took off and Kate Martin in effect acted as the point guard with Clark getting some open threes at the end of the break. Should Clark be taking off more and having Mitchell be the point guard?
If Lisa Bluder were the coach, and Kate Martin was on the Fever- I would say definitely go for it. I honestly don't know what their rules or methods for the fastbreak at Iowa were, but I know early in the year when they tried to have Mitchell and Clark alternate at times as point guards- it was a total mess. Early in the year, they did not ever find Clark when she was off the ball.
As improved as the Fever are offensively, they don't look for Clark as well as they should in broken fastbreak situations. For now, they need to keep the ball in Clark’s hands.
12- So you mentioned bringing on Bo Ryan and then Lisa Bluder, are you saying they need to fire Coach Sides?
Coach Side is not going to be fired this year. The team's improvement offensively has taken some of the heat off her. She was hired obviously by the present GM, and GM's hate to admit they ever made a mistake.
We will see what happens the second half of the season. Their defense needs to improve but Clark needs to improve defensively. And they need to have one of their young players show they have "developed" them into rotation players.
During the Olympic break- Sides needs to do what I suggested earlier. She needs to watch Golden State tape- she has to be MUCH more imaginative in ways to get Clark open. I am not saying they need 20 sets, but I would suggest she needs to add a few sets to get Clark shots and to use Clark as a back screener and popping.
My prediction is that she will make it thru the year and she will be the coach at the start of next year also. As expectations rise next year, the pressure will mount more for her. This season the Indiana ownership and the Indiana management is basking in the their success in picking Clark with #1 pick. Next year, the clock will begin to start ticking on ownership and management. Fans will view the next draft and then decisions about coaching much more critically starting this coming off-season.
Coach Sides will not be Caitlin Clark's only coach in the WNBA.
13- Who is the best coach in the WNBA?
This is a no-brainer, Becky Hammon of the Las Vegas Aces. Obviously she has the best player in the league in A'ja Wilson. The Ace are fun to watch because of their talent but also how they play. Their offense has subtle actions, like you see from NBA teams. The best coach in the NBA is Gregg Popovich and she worked for him as an assistant for several years so it is no accident she is a great coach.
14- The Angel Reese vs Caitlin Clark rivalry, will it end up the Larry Bird vs Magic Johnson rivalry of the WNBA?
Absolutely not! Larry Bird and Magic's greatness was their all round games- passers, shooters, rebounders, defenders. Clark has the potential to be Magic-like. Reese is not Bird-like and will never be Bird-like. Angel Reese is more Dennis Rodman like. Rodman was a great player but was not an all around player.
Some criticize Reese, saying her rebounds are padded by her own misses. In other words they are saying she is a great rebounder in part because she is a bad shooter. Reese at this writing has 97 offensive rebounds, of which 34 are her own misses- 35% are her own misses. Magberger is second highest with 62 offensive rebounds- she has 13 off her own misses or 21% are her own misses. So yes, Reese gets more because of her misses but if you took those rebounds away from her- she would still have the most offensive rebounds in the WNBA.
My greatest criticism of Reese is that her all out commitment to the offensive boards, combined with an apparent lack of interest in defensive transition creates defensive problems for her teammates. It leaves the lane open for drives in transition, early post ups, and open threes in rotation. Grinnell has made a living by crashing the offensive boards, in part to encourage the other team to run- this is what the Sky are doing.
15- Why was the schedule so messed up at the beginning?
I have no idea, I am hoping it was just because they wanted to get Clark on TV early and often. It is crazy how some teams had played 5-6 more games than others.
This past week Chicago played at NY, and then two days later NY played at Chicago. Seattle played multiple home games in a row. I don't know if these are arena issues or if they are some plan to reduce costs. The WNBA has to do a better job. The early schedule was very unfair to the Fever.
16- Is summer basketball in the WNBA good or bad?
If you had asked me two months ago I would have said that the WNBA would never take off if they didn't move to winter season. Now I am convinced the spring/summer/fall season is good for the WNBA. Baseball is losing fans left and right, especially younger fans- so the WNBA is filling a real void.
I thought the afternoon summer games was absolutely crazy. It turns out it is a fabulous idea- fewer grumpy old men and more young excited girls going to the games!
17- How is the expansion going to work?
In 2025 Golden State Valkyries will play. Do NOT look up what a valkyries means- it is one of the all-time stupidest nicknames in sports history. Then in 2026 Toronto joins the league. My understanding is that each team will be able to protect 6 of their players in the expansion draft. The plan is not set but "experts" say based on past expansions that Golden State will get the #5 pick behind the "lottery teams" in the actual draft.
The last expansion, Atlanta in 2008 finished at 4-30 but the following year bounced up to 18-16.
18- How will the WNBA draft work?
The four teams who do not make the play-offs this year, will be ranked based on their combine record this year and last year. This is an attempt to eliminate tanking. Right now worst to best would be: 1-Los Angeles, 2-Washington, 3-Atlanta, and 4- Dallas. Those four will draw for the #1 and #2 picks. The two not drawn will pick #3 and #4.
Because of trades made previously- Atlanta's first pick goes to Washington, Chicago's to Dallas, a second Chicago to Washington, a second Atlanta to Dallas.
Based on the present record, Indiana would get the #7 pick next year, behind the 5 teams behind them in the standings plus Golden State.
19- Who are the top prospects in next year's draft?
At this moment, the Bleacher Reports rank the picks in the following general order:
(1) Paige Bueckers (Conn) 5'11" G, (2) Aneesah Morrow (LSU) 6'1" G, (3) Kiki Iriafen (Stan) 6'3" F, (4) Olivia Miles (ND) 5'10" G, (5) Azzi Fudd (Conn) 6'0" G, (6) Rori Harmon (Tex) 5'6" G, (7) Georgia Amoore (Kentucky) 5'6" G, (8) Sonia Citron (ND) 6'1" G, (9) Hailey VanLith (TCU) 5'7" G, (10) Te-Hina Paopao (SC) 5'9" G, (11) Maddie Scherr (TCU) 5'11" G
Injuries in women’s basketball can make all of this unpredictable. All of this can change, but Paige Bueckers being #1 pick will not change.
For Indiana, some of the draft projection people mention Sonia Citron (ND) (36% threes), Te-Hina Paopao (SC) (47% threes), and JJ Quinerly (W Va) (34% threes- Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year).
Interesting how light shined on Clark at Iowa has brought more light to the WNBA, and now the increased light on the WNBA creates interest in best college players. So next year I know I will be paying a lot more attention during women’s college season not to just my 5-6 teams of interest but many more teams.
20- What would John Wooden say about the draft?
Wooden's famous line- You don't play the best five, you play the five who play together the best." Sometimes it seems like both colleges and the pros recruit on potential and scouting service rankings. And some teams have the mentality of taking the "best available" as ranked by the scouts vs the best fit for their team.
I am guessing Las Vegas didn't go with the best athlete or the highest rated player on the draft lists when they took Kate Martin. At last look, Martin is playing 14.6 minutes per game, and shooting 39% from threes. I am guessing part of what makes Las Vegas successful is that they trust their own judgement and recognize their own needs.
For all blogs written on Caitlin Clark and WNBA, click on the following:
Caitlin Clark- Everything I Have Written
Great read!
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