Basketball 101- Arsenault’s Threes or Layups

Kareem vs Unseld

BACKGROUND

Basketball is not the same as it was in the 1970’s. Offensively it has changed significantly. 

In 1960’s- John Wooden wanted to fastbreak but then they ran the “UCLA High Post Offense.” Today, we still refer to the UCLA cut by the guard going off the high post. 

In 1960’s, 1970’s, 1980’s- Offenses still ran thru the post. The best players were Bill Walton, Bill Russell, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. In HS, college, and pros- everybody tended to put the big guy down in the low post.

Bob Knight- Indiana

In 1970’s Bob Knight popularized “motion offense.” The concept involved moving and screening away from the ball. Most scoring was the resulting of a pass for a cutting offensive player. It was tough to teach players to randomly read and cut, as a result many HS coaches followed the direction of coaches like Jerry Leggett and put in set plays involving screening, passing, and cutting. 

John Calipari

In 2000’s Vance Wahlberg became the guru of the dribble drive. It was most famously adapted by John Calipari at Kentucky. It involved scoring by spreading the defense and creating driving opportunities rather than cutting and passing. Today dribble drive is apt to relay on either 4 on perimeter and 1 inside, or 5 on the perimeter. You try to avoid having anyone in the post so it is clear to drive. The driving may involve just straight 1 on 1 opportunities or using ball screens to create mismatches and then drive opportunities. 

David Arsenault- Grinnell

GRINNELL ANALYTICS

In the 1980’s, David Arsenault of Grinnell College used analytics to develop a unique basketball strategy that had not been used before. His style was called “The System.” Everything he emphasized was based on analytics. They pressed all over in both full and half court, and they looked to run and get up quick shots. While there are many parts of the “Grinnell System,” I would argue at the heart of the “System” were the analytics on what was a good and bad shot. 

The analytics said that in live play, the best shots were either threes or layups. Mid-range two’s did not statistically produce the same level of return. So in the Grinnell System, you tried to either get a layup or a three. Thirty or forty years after Arsenault’s idea, it has become at the core of most college and pro teams. 

David Arsenault- following his dad at Grinnell

The following chart shows the average points per shot by NBA players from certain spots from 1998-2018. 

Mid-Range Jumper-  0.79 points per shot

Shot in the Paint-     0.79 points per shot

Three Pointer Above the Break-  1.05 points per shot (This is 3’s from wings to the top)

Corner Threes-   1.16 points per shot (In NBA, 3 point line is 23’9” at top, 22’0” in corner)

Restricted Area-   1.20 points per shot (This is charge circle- so a layup)

So obviously the stats show that layups and threes are the best shots- just as David Arsenault showed in the 1980’s. How have these analytics changed even the NBA in the twenty years? The following chart shows percentage of shots attempted from each spot or area in the NBA in 1998 and then in 2018. 

                                         1998.          2018

Mid-Range 2’s.                     38%.         19%

Three’s.                               13%.         34%

Restricted Area Layups.         35%.         32%

Paint Shots.                          13%.         16%

Nate Oats at Alabama

In 2021 season, 39.2% of shot attempts were three point attempts in the NBA. And in 2024, NCAA college men’s teams took 37% of their attempts from three point range. The two teams in the NBA Finals this year- Dallas 44% of shot attempts were 3’s, while Boston put up 47% of attempts as 3’s.  

I know there are some basketball fans who complain about the NBA and hate watching it. I get it but people need to realize that normally everything in terms of strategy starts in the NBA, trickles down to college, and then is imitated by HS. So this shot selection strategy is gradually taking over all of basketball. It is not just the NBA doing this. This past year, at one point during the NCAA Tourney, Alabama on their way to the Final Four had taken only 2 three point shots. 

Basketball strategy is not static. Someone will develop a strategy that is effective defensively, or someone will come up with a new offensive concept. Or the rules committee will adjust the rules that make dribble drive less effective. But for now, the majority of basketball is using a basic concept started by Coach David Arsenault at Grinnell College in the 1980’s.